Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

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Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 04 2020 882 18487 40 6 145 183
September 05 2020 905 18880 41 6 157 199
September 06 2020 941 18958 42 6 173 219
September 07 2020 977 19101 41 6 197 249
September 08 2020 1000 19162 41 6 210 263
September 09 2020 1037 19168 41 6 236 289
September 10 2020 1060 19290 42 6 259 292
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 1.2% 3 0.03% 4 0.03%
10-19 9 8.0 26.6% 69 0.51% 72 0.53%
20-29 12 16.4 57.5% 149 0.71% 168 0.8%
30-39 0 1.0 3.5% 9 0.07% 13 0.1%
40-49 1 1.1 5% 13 0.12% 17 0.16%
50-59 1 0.7 3.1% 8 0.06% 9 0.07%
60-69 0 0.4 1.5% 4 0.03% 4 0.03%
70+ 0 0.4 1.5% 4 0.04% 5 0.05%
All ages 23 28.6 100% 259 0.25% 292 0.28%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 04 2020 371 12430 15 0 67 78
September 05 2020 376 12489 15 0 64 83
September 06 2020 378 12547 15 0 55 77
September 07 2020 382 12585 15 0 51 80
September 08 2020 385 12648 16 0 43 81
September 09 2020 389 12673 17 0 44 77
September 10 2020 395 12747 17 0 48 72

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 04 2020 382 7578 16 3 21 33
September 05 2020 385 7652 16 3 21 30
September 06 2020 388 7695 16 3 23 28
September 07 2020 392 7695 16 3 23 32
September 08 2020 393 7701 18 3 23 32
September 09 2020 393 7787 18 3 23 29
September 10 2020 394 7850 18 4 24 29

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 04 2020 5799 167619 332 40 638 801
September 05 2020 5961 168233 332 40 752 908
September 06 2020 6118 169345 333 40 824 1030
September 07 2020 6208 170307 335 40 878 1091
September 08 2020 6427 170482 335 40 1040 1266
September 09 2020 6489 171531 338 41 1063 1280
September 10 2020 6971 172451 340 41 1542 1677
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 1.9 1.1% 17 0.03% 21 0.03%
10-19 299 114.1 57.8% 891 1.25% 931 1.31%
20-29 137 54.6 28.5% 439 0.42% 485 0.47%
30-39 18 8.1 4.9% 76 0.1% 92 0.12%
40-49 8 3.4 2.6% 40 0.06% 50 0.08%
50-59 6 3.4 2.2% 34 0.05% 48 0.07%
60-69 7 3.4 1.8% 28 0.05% 32 0.06%
70+ 3 1.3 1.1% 17 0.03% 18 0.04%
All ages 482 190.3 100% 1542 0.28% 1677 0.31%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 04 2020 79354 1210203 5998 1153 7862 10295
September 05 2020 80300 1217278 6048 1168 8040 10291
September 06 2020 81193 1221894 6070 1168 8055 10731
September 07 2020 81760 1226793 6089 1168 7779 10906
September 08 2020 82477 1230159 6118 1168 7677 10985
September 09 2020 83334 1238173 6173 1183 7997 11074
September 10 2020 84881 1245448 6222 1193 9278 11743
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 37 24.1 2.5% 233 0.04% 300 0.05%
10-19 511 225.9 20.5% 1900 0.25% 2196 0.29%
20-29 450 278.4 26.7% 2477 0.33% 3090 0.41%
30-39 144 114.0 12.3% 1140 0.15% 1499 0.2%
40-49 103 97.6 10.6% 981 0.14% 1321 0.19%
50-59 146 123.6 12.8% 1188 0.15% 1533 0.19%
60-69 86 77.6 8% 746 0.1% 1009 0.13%
70+ 70 62.4 6.6% 613 0.1% 795 0.12%
All ages 1547 1003.6 100% 9278 0.16% 11743 0.2%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
27.9 80.3 28.6 11.3 19.2%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
11.1 4.4 6.3 6.3%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
6.9 1.9 1.4 4.1%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
30.7 46.7 190.3 48.3 19.4%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
20.2 40.2 1003.6 696.4 13.4%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 23.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1268"

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