Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 04 2020 | 882 | 18487 | 40 | 6 | 145 | 183 |
| September 05 2020 | 905 | 18880 | 41 | 6 | 157 | 199 |
| September 06 2020 | 941 | 18958 | 42 | 6 | 173 | 219 |
| September 07 2020 | 977 | 19101 | 41 | 6 | 197 | 249 |
| September 08 2020 | 1000 | 19162 | 41 | 6 | 210 | 263 |
| September 09 2020 | 1037 | 19168 | 41 | 6 | 236 | 289 |
| September 10 2020 | 1060 | 19290 | 42 | 6 | 259 | 292 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 8.0 | 26.6% | 69 | 0.51% | 72 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 16.4 | 57.5% | 149 | 0.71% | 168 | 0.8% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.5% | 9 | 0.07% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.1 | 5% | 13 | 0.12% | 17 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.7 | 3.1% | 8 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.07% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.5% | 4 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 1.5% | 4 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 23 | 28.6 | 100% | 259 | 0.25% | 292 | 0.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 04 2020 | 371 | 12430 | 15 | 0 | 67 | 78 |
| September 05 2020 | 376 | 12489 | 15 | 0 | 64 | 83 |
| September 06 2020 | 378 | 12547 | 15 | 0 | 55 | 77 |
| September 07 2020 | 382 | 12585 | 15 | 0 | 51 | 80 |
| September 08 2020 | 385 | 12648 | 16 | 0 | 43 | 81 |
| September 09 2020 | 389 | 12673 | 17 | 0 | 44 | 77 |
| September 10 2020 | 395 | 12747 | 17 | 0 | 48 | 72 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 04 2020 | 382 | 7578 | 16 | 3 | 21 | 33 |
| September 05 2020 | 385 | 7652 | 16 | 3 | 21 | 30 |
| September 06 2020 | 388 | 7695 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 28 |
| September 07 2020 | 392 | 7695 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 32 |
| September 08 2020 | 393 | 7701 | 18 | 3 | 23 | 32 |
| September 09 2020 | 393 | 7787 | 18 | 3 | 23 | 29 |
| September 10 2020 | 394 | 7850 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 29 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 04 2020 | 5799 | 167619 | 332 | 40 | 638 | 801 |
| September 05 2020 | 5961 | 168233 | 332 | 40 | 752 | 908 |
| September 06 2020 | 6118 | 169345 | 333 | 40 | 824 | 1030 |
| September 07 2020 | 6208 | 170307 | 335 | 40 | 878 | 1091 |
| September 08 2020 | 6427 | 170482 | 335 | 40 | 1040 | 1266 |
| September 09 2020 | 6489 | 171531 | 338 | 41 | 1063 | 1280 |
| September 10 2020 | 6971 | 172451 | 340 | 41 | 1542 | 1677 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.9 | 1.1% | 17 | 0.03% | 21 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 299 | 114.1 | 57.8% | 891 | 1.25% | 931 | 1.31% |
| 20-29 | 137 | 54.6 | 28.5% | 439 | 0.42% | 485 | 0.47% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 8.1 | 4.9% | 76 | 0.1% | 92 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 3.4 | 2.6% | 40 | 0.06% | 50 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3.4 | 2.2% | 34 | 0.05% | 48 | 0.07% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.4 | 1.8% | 28 | 0.05% | 32 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.3 | 1.1% | 17 | 0.03% | 18 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 482 | 190.3 | 100% | 1542 | 0.28% | 1677 | 0.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 04 2020 | 79354 | 1210203 | 5998 | 1153 | 7862 | 10295 |
| September 05 2020 | 80300 | 1217278 | 6048 | 1168 | 8040 | 10291 |
| September 06 2020 | 81193 | 1221894 | 6070 | 1168 | 8055 | 10731 |
| September 07 2020 | 81760 | 1226793 | 6089 | 1168 | 7779 | 10906 |
| September 08 2020 | 82477 | 1230159 | 6118 | 1168 | 7677 | 10985 |
| September 09 2020 | 83334 | 1238173 | 6173 | 1183 | 7997 | 11074 |
| September 10 2020 | 84881 | 1245448 | 6222 | 1193 | 9278 | 11743 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 37 | 24.1 | 2.5% | 233 | 0.04% | 300 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 511 | 225.9 | 20.5% | 1900 | 0.25% | 2196 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 450 | 278.4 | 26.7% | 2477 | 0.33% | 3090 | 0.41% |
| 30-39 | 144 | 114.0 | 12.3% | 1140 | 0.15% | 1499 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 103 | 97.6 | 10.6% | 981 | 0.14% | 1321 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 146 | 123.6 | 12.8% | 1188 | 0.15% | 1533 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 86 | 77.6 | 8% | 746 | 0.1% | 1009 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 70 | 62.4 | 6.6% | 613 | 0.1% | 795 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 1547 | 1003.6 | 100% | 9278 | 0.16% | 11743 | 0.2% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.9 | 80.3 | 28.6 | 11.3 | 19.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.1 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 6.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.7 | 46.7 | 190.3 | 48.3 | 19.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.2 | 40.2 | 1003.6 | 696.4 | 13.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 23.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1268"